Majority of Japanese Companies Prefer Kamala Harris Over Donald Trump for U.S. Presidency, Citing Trade War Fears and Need for Stability

A significant number of Japanese companies are leaning towards Kamala Harris as their preferred candidate in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, reflecting widespread concerns over the potential economic disruptions and policy volatility that could arise from a second term for Donald Trump. According to a survey conducted by Nikkei Research, 43% of Japanese firms believe a Harris presidency would be more beneficial for their business strategies, while only 8% favor a Trump administration. The survey, which polled 506 companies between July 31 and August 9, received responses from 243 firms, providing a broad view of corporate sentiment in one of the United States' most important allies.

The Japanese business community is particularly wary of the possible resurgence of trade wars and economic frictions that characterized the Trump administration's first term. These concerns are especially pronounced given Japan's deep economic ties with both the U.S. and China, its two largest trading partners. The fear that another Trump administration could exacerbate tensions with China has led many Japanese companies to consider significant adjustments to their business operations. A ceramics manufacturer expressed concern that renewed trade hostilities could force them to overhaul their business strategies entirely, while others highlighted the risk of heightened security threats under Trump's leadership.

One of the most contentious issues for Japanese firms is the potential for sweeping tariffs that Trump has suggested in recent statements. He has floated the idea of imposing a 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports, alongside a 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Such measures would likely disrupt global supply chains and create significant challenges for Japanese companies, many of which rely on stable and predictable trade relations to plan their production and investment strategies. In the survey, 34% of respondents indicated that they would need to revise their foreign exchange strategies if Trump were re-elected, while 28% said they would be forced to realign their supply chains, and 21% would consider reducing their operations in China.

In contrast, companies that favor a Harris presidency believe that her administration would maintain a more consistent and predictable approach to international trade and economic policy. An official at a chemicals firm noted that Harris is likely to uphold many of the current policies, offering businesses better visibility into the future. This sense of stability is crucial for companies operating in a highly interconnected global market, where sudden shifts in policy can have far-reaching consequences.

The survey also revealed that a significant portion of Japanese companies—46%—would be content with either candidate, signaling that some businesses are prepared to adapt regardless of the election's outcome. However, the preference for Harris underscores a broader desire among Japanese firms for a more stable and less confrontational U.S. administration.

Japan's relationship with the Trump administration has been complex, marked by moments of tension over issues such as military spending and trade agreements. Trump's demands for increased payments from Japan to support the U.S. military presence in the country, along with his administration's aggressive trade policies, have created uncertainties for Japanese businesses. These factors contribute to the prevailing sentiment that a Harris presidency would be more favorable for Japan's economic interests.

As the November election approaches, the global business community is watching closely, aware that the outcome will have significant implications for international trade, economic policy, and global stability. For Japan, a key U.S. ally with deep economic ties to both Washington and Beijing, the stakes are particularly high. The preference for Harris among Japanese companies reflects a broader hope for a more predictable and less disruptive U.S. administration in the years to come.